Issue No. 18 | Sep 2, 2026
There's a fight happening in real estate right now, and it has nothing to do with interest rates or inventory.
It's about where homes get listed — and who gets to see them.
If you're not in the middle of a transaction, this might sound like an industry squabble that doesn't affect you. It does. Here's why, and a few other things I think are worth your attention this week.
THE PRIVATE LISTINGS DEBATE & WHY IT MATTERS
Bess Freedman, the CEO of Brown Harris Stevens, wrote something this week that's worth reading. Her argument is simple: just because sellers technically can choose to list their home privately, off the MLS, and visible only to a select group of agents doesn't mean that choice is in their best interest.
What she's describing is real, and it's growing. Large brokerages are increasingly using what are called private listing networks, essentially shadow markets where homes are marketed to a narrow audience before, or instead of, being exposed to the full buyer pool.
Supporters call it privacy. Critics call it gatekeeping.
Here's what I care about: transparency. When a home is listed on the MLS, every buyer, every agent, every lender sees it. That creates competition. Competition creates better outcomes for sellers. When a home is hidden behind a velvet rope, you lose that competition, and you lose the price discovery that comes with it.
This isn't theoretical. A House Judiciary subcommittee is now probing these networks, and multiple states, including New York, have introduced or passed legislation requiring broader public marketing to ensure buyers aren't being shut out.
The NAACP has weighed in, arguing that limited access listings can reinforce housing access disparities.
I bring this up because if you ever sell a home, now or five years from now, you deserve to understand exactly where your property is being marketed and who can see it. That's not a detail to gloss over. It's the whole game.
If you're curious about how this plays out locally, I'm happy to walk you through it.
POST LABOR DAY: MORE HOMES, MORE CHOICE
For the past several months, the story has been thin inventory. Fewer listings, more competition, faster sales.
That's starting to shift, modestly.
Local market data shows inventory ticking up heading into fall. In one Inner East Bay analysis, single-family homes with open houses showed about 6 percent had price adjustments, while condos and townhouses ran closer to 9 percent. Average days on market for condos is now 77, compared to 49 for townhouses.
Berkeley remains tight. Homes in the Flats are trading above $1,200 per square foot, and well-priced listings are still moving in about two weeks. Hillside properties trade closer to $800 per square foot, but buyer caution around fire insurance is a real factor there.
Oakland is a neighborhood-by-neighborhood story. Rockridge and Temescal remain strong. The under-$1 million market is softer than the over-$1 million segment. And West Oakland continues to draw attention, not just because of the Bezos and Musk leases we discussed two weeks ago, but because the Mandela Station transit-oriented development is finally breaking ground on its first phase: 240 units of affordable housing near the BART station.
More inventory means more options. For buyers, that's a welcome change. For sellers, it means preparation and pricing matter more than they did three months ago. The market is still strong, but it's becoming more selective.
THE FED MEETS ON SEPTEMBER 15 AND 16
Mark your calendar. The Federal Reserve's next meeting is two weeks out, and markets are pricing in a meaningful probability, somewhere around 65 to 70 percent, that the Fed will raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. That would push the federal funds rate to 3.75 to 4.00 percent.
Now, here's the part most people get wrong: the Fed doesn't set mortgage rates. Mortgages track the 10-year Treasury yield, not the federal funds rate. But the two are related, and a Fed hike generally puts upward pressure on mortgage rates regardless.
Where are we now? The 30-year fixed has been hovering in the mid-to-high 6 percent range, and recent commentary from Fed officials has pushed rates closer to 7 percent.
What does that mean practically? A buyer who qualified for an $800,000 mortgage at 6.5 percent has roughly the same purchasing power at 7 percent as someone buying at $760,000. That's not catastrophic, but it's real money, and it changes what's affordable.
For homeowners with an existing mortgage at a lower rate, this is a reminder of why refinancing decisions matter, and why locking in a rate when you find the right property is worth discussing seriously with a lender.
I don't try to predict what the Fed will do. I try to help you understand what it means if they do it.
ONE MORE THING: FIRE INSURANCE COSTS ARE RISING
If you own a home in a hillside area or anywhere near a high fire severity zone, this is worth knowing.
The California FAIR Plan, the state's insurer of last resort for homeowners who can't get coverage through the standard market, is raising rates 29.1 percent effective October 15.
Enrollment in the FAIR Plan has surged. In some high-risk zones, 28 to 41 percent of residential structures are now covered by it.
FAIR Plan policies are typically 1.5 to 3 times more expensive than standard market insurance, and they only cover fire, smoke, and firefighting water damage. Most homeowners pair them with a separate wrap policy for comprehensive coverage.
This isn't just a cost issue. It's starting to affect buyer demand in certain neighborhoods. Fire insurance costs are factoring into purchase decisions in ways they didn't two years ago, particularly for hillside properties in Berkeley, the Oakland hills, and Lamorinda.
If you're in one of these areas, understanding your current coverage and what it might cost to renew is worth doing now, before the October rate increase takes effect.
WHAT THIS ALL ADDS UP TO
Understanding these forces is more useful than reacting to them.
We're in a market that's becoming more complex, not less. Private listing networks are changing how homes are marketed. The Fed may push borrowing costs higher in two weeks. Inventory is loosening, but selectively. And insurance costs are adding a new variable to property values in hillside neighborhoods.
None of these things are reasons to panic. All of them are reasons to understand what's happening before you make a decision.
That's what I spend my time on, not predicting, but interpreting. And if any of this sparks a question about your situation, your neighborhood, or your next move, I'm here. Text, call, or email anytime.
SURVEY: ONE QUESTION FOR YOU
With more homes hitting the market and mortgage rates potentially heading higher, do you know what your home would sell for in today's environment — not what it was worth two years ago, but right now?
