Issue No. 22 | Oct 28, 2026
Most people talk about "the market" as if it’s a single thing.
It’s not. Right now, it’s three distinct markets, moving at three different speeds, all within a 20-minute drive.
If you’re looking at the East Bay from the outside, you’re likely seeing conflicting headlines. Are homes selling for hundreds of thousands over asking, or are they sitting for weeks? The answer is "yes"—depending entirely on which city, and which pocket of that city, you’re looking at.
THE THREE SPEEDS
1. The Berkeley Premium
In North Berkeley and the surrounding neighborhoods, the competition hasn't cooled. When a turnkey home hits the market here, it’s still behaving like it’s mid-spring. We are seeing homes move in under two weeks, with multiple offers and sale prices regularly exceeding the list price by significant margins. It’s a seller’s environment, and for buyers, it remains a test of discipline and preparation.
2. The Oakland Split
Oakland is running on a different clock. We have pockets—like Crocker Highlands, Rockridge and Temescal—that are holding steady and moving quickly. But move into other segments of the city, and the rhythm changes. We are seeing condos and certain price points sit on the market for 30+ days. This isn't a sign of a "bad" market; it’s a sign of a rational one where buyers are being much more selective about value.
3. The Lamorinda Maturity
Lamorinda has shifted into a more sophisticated, "wait-and-see" pace. It’s not the frenetic race we saw earlier in the year. Days on market have extended—often hovering in the 40-day range—and buyers here are acting with a deliberate, measured approach. It is a market that rewards those who have done their homework and aren't feeling the pressure to rush into the first open house they see.
WHY THIS MATTERS FOR YOU
The danger in a market like this is waiting for "the market" to turn.
If you’re waiting for Lamorinda’s pace to mirror Berkeley’s competition levels, you’re waiting for a change that won’t come. And if you’re using Oakland’s price trends to decide whether to bid on a home in Orinda, you’re using the wrong compass.
SAVE THE DATE
RSVP
ON THE MARKET
Villa delle Viti: A Rare Find in Ygnacio Valley
Why wait for a vacation? This 2005-built estate offers a west-facing perch above Ygnacio Valley, complete with a private vineyard, fruit orchard, and direct access to Lime Ridge hiking trails. The outdoor living is unrivaled: a custom outdoor kitchen, a fire pit, and a swim spa. Inside and out, it’s a setup that rarely hits the market in this area.
See the property: 4360kingswood.com
Top-Floor Sanctuary in Adams Point.
Entire-floor privacy, zero shared hallways, and views that make you forget you’re in the heart of the city. With high-end finishes, Brazilian Walnut floors, and a private deck off almost every room, this is for the buyer who wants the scale of a house with the convenience of a modern penthouse.
Take the tour: 424orangest401.com
WHAT I’M TELLING CLIENTS
Focus on the specific street, the specific school district, and the specific property. Trends are helpful for context, but they don't buy houses.
Know your number. At today's rates, what is your true, monthly "sleep-well-at-night" number?
Know your neighborhood's speed. Don't assume the 30-day average you see on a national site applies to the specific neighborhood you’re eyeing.
Be ready to move. In the faster markets, "thinking about it" for a weekend is a luxury that often costs you the house. In the slower ones, it’s a tool for negotiation.
If you’re trying to make sense of the noise and want a clearer picture of how these three speeds are affecting your specific goals, I’m here.
Text, call, or email anytime. You are NEVER bothering me. I’m here for all questions, concerns, and curiosities!
