The Illusion of a “Balanced” Market
If you’re just skimming headlines, you might think things have softened.
- Some price points are flatter year-over-year
- Condos are still uneven
- Days on market in some areas ticked up slightly
But zoom in, and a different picture shows up:
- Inventory is still down ~18–21% year-over-year across the East Bay
- Homes in Alameda County are still selling in ~13 days on average
- Roughly 70%+ of homes are selling over asking
That’s not a soft market. That’s a constrained, competitive one.
What’s changed isn’t demand. It’s visibility.
The competition is quieter. More selective.
But when the right house shows up, it moves fast.
A Quick Break From the Market
Last week, we hit pause for a minute.
No stats. No strategy sessions. No timelines to manage.
Just a room full of clients, friends, and familiar faces. Good food, music, and the kind of conversations we don’t always get to have during the pace of a transaction.
We hosted our Spring Client Appreciation Night here in Berkeley, and it turned out to be one of those evenings that remind us why we do this in the first place.
Real estate is the work. But relationships are the reason.
Here’s a quick look at the night. Click below for the recap.
Oakland & Berkeley — Demand is Outpacing Supply Again
Across the Inner East Bay (Oakland, Berkeley, Albany), the pattern is tightening:
- Buyer demand is rising into spring
- Supply is not keeping up
- Overbidding is increasing again
- Even where prices look “flat,” that’s often misleading.
What’s actually happening:
- More lower-priced homes selling → pulls median down
- But the price per square foot is holding steady
- Well-positioned homes are still outperforming
In Oakland specifically:
- Only ~9.6% of listings are reducing prices
- Inventory has dropped while the rest of the country is loosening
Translation:
Sellers aren’t chasing buyers. Buyers are competing selectively.
And that selective competition is where things get aggressive.
Lamorinda — Quietly Competitive, Still Premium
Lafayette, Orinda, Moraga, this is where the market gets even more precise.
- Median prices hovering near or above $2M in key pockets
- Strong demand tied to schools, lifestyle, and long-term hold buyers
- Early multiple offers returning in the $1.5M–$2.5M range
- This isn’t a frenzy market.
- It’s a decision-driven market:
- Buyers are intentional
- Sellers who prep properly are rewarded quickly
- Everything hinges on positioning
The gap between “well-prepared” and “everything else” is widening fast.
The Real Divide Right Now
There aren’t two markets. There are two outcomes:
DIALED-IN HOMES
- Thoughtful prep
- Strategic pricing
- Strong early activity
- Multiple offers are still very real
EVERYTHING ELSE
- Sitting longer
- Price adjustments
- Missed timing
- This gap is defining 2026. Even in a “calmer” market, execution is everything.
WHAT THIS MEANS (THE PART PEOPLE MISS)
This is not a wait-and-see market.
It’s a prepare-and-position market.
Because right now:
- Inventory is still constrained
- Buyers are active (even at ~6–7% rates)
- And spring is compressing timelines again
The risk isn’t jumping too early. The risk is showing up unprepared when the moment is already moving.
Final Take
This market doesn’t necessarily feel aggressive at first glance, but it is. Just not everywhere, not all at once, and not for everyone. The intensity shows up in specific pockets, at specific price points, and on the homes that are positioned correctly—exactly where it matters most.
