Issue No. 20 | Oct 1, 2026
Most people assume the real estate season ends in October.
Listings slow down. Buyers pull back. The market goes quiet until Super Bowl weekend.
That's partially true. Inventory does thin out. But something else happens at the same time that most people don't notice until it's too late.
THE BUYERS WHO ARE STILL LOOKING
When fewer people are attending open houses, the ones who show up are serious.
They've already been through the spring and summer. They know what $1.4 million buys in Elmwood versus what it buys in Montclair. They've lost a house or two. They've stopped making lists of must-haves they haven't earned yet.
This is not the market for casual browsing. But for someone who has done the work and knows what they're looking for, the fourth quarter behaves differently from the rest of the year.
Fewer offers doesn't mean no competition. It means the competition is more predictable.
WHAT ACTUALLY CHANGES
In Berkeley, the median home is still selling in about 15 days. That hasn't changed much all year.
What has changed is the number of new listings hitting the market each week. In the flats, it's been steady but not generous. In the hills, it's been inconsistent – some weeks nothing at all in the price ranges buyers are searching.
Oakland tells a different story. Homes in Rockridge and Temescal are still moving. Condos in other pockets are sitting for 30 days or longer. Two markets, same city, running on completely different clocks.
That split is worth understanding before you decide to wait for "more inventory."
More inventory in Oakland doesn't help you if you're buying in North Berkeley. And the reverse is also true.
THE COST OF THE PAUSE
Here's what I've been telling buyers who ask whether they should hold off until January.
You can refinance a rate. You can't refinance a price. That part hasn't changed since last month.
But there's a second cost to waiting that shows up less often in the conversation: time.
If you pause from November through February and the right house appears in March, you've lost four months of payments you'd have already been building equity in. You've also lost four months of knowing – knowing your actual monthly number, knowing your neighborhood, knowing whether the commute works at 7:45 in the morning on a Tuesday.
Those things don't show up on a spreadsheet. They matter anyway.
ON THE MARKET
Welcome to Villa delle Viti. Built in 2005 on a west-facing lot with sunset views over Ygnacio Valley. Travertine patios on all four sides, an outdoor kitchen with fire pit, a swim spa, a three-car garage with EV charging, and — this is the part — a private vineyard and fruit orchard. Near Lime Ridge open space, hiking trails out the back door. It doesn't come along often in this area.
For more information, visit 4360kingswood.com
