Issue No. 19 | Sep 16, 2026
Two companies are about to go public with a combined valuation of nearly two trillion dollars. They're both based here. And it has everything to do with housing.
A new listing just hit the market that I want you to see.
And this weekend, downtown Lafayette turns into the best block party of the year.
Let me walk through what I think is worth your attention.
THE AI IPOs ARE BAY AREA MONEY
The Wall Street Journal reported this week on something worth paying attention to, even if you don't follow tech.
Anthropic, the AI company behind Claude, confidentially filed its S-1 with the SEC in June and is targeting an October IPO on the Nasdaq. Its last private valuation: $965 billion. Some forecasts suggest the public debut could push it past $1 trillion. OpenAI is expected to follow.
Here's why I bring this up in a real estate newsletter: these are Bay Area companies. The employees, founders, and early investors who stand to benefit from these IPOs largely live here. When liquidity events of this magnitude happen in the Bay Area, the housing market feels it – not in headlines, but in neighborhoods. In bidding wars that appear out of nowhere. In cash offers that change the math for everyone else.
I'm not predicting a flood of AI wealth into Lamorinda or the Oakland hills. But I've been through enough of these cycles to know that when enormous wealth gets created locally, it shows up in the housing market within six to twelve months.
If you're buying in the next year, this is worth understanding. If you're selling, it's worth knowing who your buyer might be. If you want to talk shop with me anytime, shoot me a text or give me a call. Exciting times ahead!
THIS WEEKEND: LAFAYETTE ART & WINE
The 29th annual Lafayette Art & Wine Festival is this Saturday and Sunday, September 19 and 20, along Mt. Diablo Boulevard.
Free, family-friendly, dog-friendly. Over 200 art and craft booths, four stages of live music, local food, and more regional wine and craft beer than you probably need. Saturday runs 10 a.m. to 7 p.m., Sunday 10 a.m. to 6 p.m.
I mention this because Lafayette is one of those communities where the quality of life is hard to quantify until you spend an afternoon there. The festival is a good way to do that if you're considering the area. And if you already live there, you already know.
THE FALL MARKET: WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENING
Here's what the data says right now.
Inventory is creeping up. Not dramatically, but enough to notice. For the first time in months, buyers in some segments have more than one option. Condos in the Inner East Bay are averaging 77 days on market, compared to 49 for townhouses. That gap tells you something: buyers are being more selective, and the market is starting to sort accordingly.
Berkeley remains tight. Median sold price is around $1.41 million, with price per square foot at $881 over the last six months. Well-priced homes in the Flats are still moving quickly. Hillside properties face a different dynamic – buyer caution around fire insurance is real, and it's affecting both demand and pricing.
Oakland is neighborhood by neighborhood. Rockridge and Temescal remain strong. The median sale price across Oakland sits around $740,000, with homes averaging 18 days on market – but that number masks significant variation.
West Oakland continues to attract attention, partly because of the Mandela Station transit-oriented development breaking ground on its first phase: 240 units of affordable housing near the BART station.
Walnut Creek is seeing softening in some segments. Median sold price is approximately $920,000, but that number includes everything from Rossmoor to premium homes above $2 million. Homes near downtown and BART remain competitive.
The micro-market strategy matters more than the citywide average.
What does all this add up to? A market that's becoming more nuanced. Not a crash, not a frenzy – a market where preparation, pricing, and local knowledge determine outcomes more than they did six months ago.
That's where I spend my time. Not on predictions, but on understanding what the numbers mean for the street you live on.
NEW LISTING: 4360 KINGSWOOD DRIVE, CONCORD
Twilight Tour: THU 09.17, 4:30–8 PM
Open House: Sat & Sun 09.19–09.20, 1–4:30 PM
Speaking of the Fall market… Welcome to Villa delle Viti. Built in 2005 on a west-facing lot with sunset views over Ygnacio Valley. Travertine patios on all four sides, an outdoor kitchen with firepit, a swim spa, a three-car garage with EV charging, and — this is the part — a private vineyard and fruit orchard. Near Lime Ridge open space, hiking trails out the back door. It doesn't come along often in this area.
For more information visit 4360kingswood.com
ONE MORE THING: FAIR PLAN RATE INCREASE
If you own property in a hillside or high fire severity zone, the California FAIR Plan is raising rates 29.1 percent effective October 15. Enrollment has surged – in some high-risk zones, 28 to 41 percent of residential structures are now covered by it. FAIR Plan policies run 1.5 to 3 times more expensive than standard market insurance, and they only cover fire, smoke, and firefighting water damage.
This is worth reviewing now, before the increase takes effect. Particularly if you're in Berkeley hillside, the Oakland hills, or Lamorinda.
WHAT THIS ALL ADDS UP TO
Understanding the forces shaping the market before they shape your decisions.
Two AI companies are preparing to go public with valuations that would have been unthinkable three years ago. Inventory is loosening, but selectively. Fire insurance costs are adding a new variable to property values in hillside neighborhoods. And this weekend, downtown Lafayette reminds us why people choose to live here in the first place.
None of these things require action. All of them reward attention.
If any of this raises a question about your situation, your neighborhood, or your next move, I'm here. Text, call, or email anytime.
